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The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty

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Abstract

This paper provides an analytically tractable theoretical framework to study the optimal supply of central bank reserves when the demand for reserves is uncertain and nonlinear. We fully characterize the optimal supply of central bank reserves and associated market equilibrium. We find that the optimal supply of reserves under uncertainty is greater than that absent uncertainty. With a sufficient degree of uncertainty, it is optimal to supply a level of reserves that is abundant (on the flat portion of the demand curve). The model captures the empirical observation that the variability of interest rate spreads depends on reserves supply.

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  • Gara Afonso & Gabriele La Spada & Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2023. "The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty," Staff Reports 1077, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:97290
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1077
    Note: Revised December 2023.
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    Keywords

    monetary policy implementation; rate control; federal funds rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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