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Sectoral Impact of COVID-19: Cascading Risks

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  • Sophie Osotimehin
  • Latchezar Popov

Abstract

Workers are unequal in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: Those who work in essential sectors face higher health risk whereas those in non-essential social-consumption sectors face greater economic risk. We study how these health and economic risks cascade into other sectors through supply chains and demand linkages. In the U.S., we find the cascading effects account for about 25-30% of the exposure to both risks. The cascading effect increases the health risk faced by workers in the transportation and retail sectors, and it increases the economic risk faced by workers in the textile and petroleum sectors. We provide sectoral estimates of the health and economic risk for 42 other countries in an online interactive document.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Osotimehin & Latchezar Popov, 2020. "Sectoral Impact of COVID-19: Cascading Risks," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 31, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:87921
    DOI: 10.21034/iwp.31
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    2. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    4. Sophie Osotimehin & Latchezar Popov, 2018. "Misallocation and intersectoral linkages," 2018 Meeting Papers 561, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Sophie Osotimehin & Latchezar Popov, 2023. "Misallocation and Intersectoral linkages," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 177-198, December.
    6. Elie Gerschel & Alejandra Martinez & Isabelle Mejean, 2020. "Propagation of shocks in global value chains: the coronavirus case," Post-Print halshs-02515364, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathur, Aakriti & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Pratap, Bhanu, 2024. "Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns: The role of pandemic-driven uncertainty," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Atolia, Manoj & Papageorgiou, Chris & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2021. "Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Adian,Ikmal & Doumbia,Djeneba & Gregory,Neil & Ragoussis,Alexandros & Reddy,Aarti & Timmis,Jonathan David, 2020. "Small and Medium Enterprises in the Pandemic : Impact, Responses and the Role of Development Finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9414, The World Bank.
    4. Sewon Hur, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Of Covid‐19 And Optimal Mitigation Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(1), pages 261-294, February.
    5. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Ruoyu Chen & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Satawat Wannapan, 2021. "The Perspective of Thailand Economy After the Effect of Coronavirus-19 Pandemics: Explication by Dynamic I-O Models and Agent-Based Simulations," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    7. Barauskaite, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2021. "Global intersectoral production network and aggregate fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand shocks; COVID-19; production networks; Demand complementarity; Input-output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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