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Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises

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  • Miguel Faria-e-Castro

Abstract

I study the effects of the US fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting both for standard tools and financial sector interventions. A nonlinear model calibrated to the US allows me to study the state-dependent effects of different fiscal policies. I combine the model with data on the fiscal policy response to find that the fall in consumption would have been one-third larger in the absence of that response, for a cumulative loss of 7.18%. Transfers and bank recapitalizations yielded the largest fiscal multipliers through new transmission channels that arise from linkages between household and bank balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises," Working Papers 2018-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2018-023
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2018.023
    Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01163
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    3. Broda, Christian & Parker, Jonathan A., 2014. "The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the aggregate demand for consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 20-36.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 32-69, January.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Thomas Philippon & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-81.
    3. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Household Leverage and the Recession," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2471-2505, September.
    4. Tatiana Damjanovic & Vladislav Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2020. "Default, Bailouts and the Vertical Structure of Financial Intermediaries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 154-180, October.
    5. Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2018. "What Are the Fiscal Costs of a (Great) Recession?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 22, pages 1-2.
    6. Ferrante, Francesco, 2019. "Risky lending, bank leverage and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 100-127.
    7. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Countercyclical Capital Buffers," Working Papers 2019-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2020.
    9. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Philippon, Thomas & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2016. "The analytics of the Greek crisis: celebratory centenary issue," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Ioannides, Yannis & Philippon, Presenter Thomas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Blanchard, Olivier & Steinsson, Jon & Uhlig, Harald & Alvarez, Fernando & Reis, Ricardo & Klein, Michael, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis Discussion," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4z39g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    11. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    12. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. Pedro Brinca & Hans Holter & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Miguel Ferreira, 2019. "The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 934, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Andrea Camilli & Marta Giagheddu, 2020. "Public debt and crowding-out: the role of housing wealth," Working Papers 441, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2020.
    16. Polo, Alberto, 2021. "Imperfect pass-through to deposit rates and monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 933, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multipliers; financial crises; bailouts; nonlinear methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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