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The macroeconomic effects of the Euro Area?s fiscal consolidation 2011-2013

Author

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  • Ansgar Rannenberg
  • Christian Schoder
  • Jan Strásky

Abstract

We simulate the Euro Area's fiscal consolidation between 2011 and 2013 by employing two DSGE models used by the ECB and the European Commission, respectively. The cumulative multiplier amounts to 0.7 and 1.0 in the baseline, but increases to 1.3 with a reasonably calibrated financial accelerator and a crisis-related increase of the share of liquidity constrained households. In the latter scenario, fiscal consolidation would be largely responsible for the decline in the output gap from 2011-2013. Postponing the fiscal consolidation to a period of unconstrained monetary policy (until after the economic recovery) would have avoided most of these losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Rannenberg & Christian Schoder & Jan Strásky, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the Euro Area?s fiscal consolidation 2011-2013," IMK Working Paper 156-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:156-2015
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    Cited by:

    1. Schoder,Christian, 2021. "Regime-Dependent Environmental Tax Multipliers : Evidence from 75 Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9640, The World Bank.
    2. Rannenberg, Ansgar & Schoder, Christian & Strasky, Jan, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the Euro Area's fiscal consolidation," Economic Letters 10/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Vítor Constâncio, 2020. "The return of fiscal policy and the euro area fiscal rule," Working Papers REM 2020/0127, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Drygalla, Andrej & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kiesel, Konstantin, 2020. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy In An Estimated Dsge Model—The Case Of The German Stimulus Packages During The Great Recession," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1315-1345, September.
    5. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2015. "The Knowledge Transmission Mechanism and Austerity," IMK Working Paper 160-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy simulations; fiscal consolidation; fiscal multiplier; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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