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Capital flows and Japanese asset volatility

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Abstract

Characterizing asset price volatility is an important goal for financial economists. The literature has shown that variables that proxy for the information arrival process can help explain and/or forecast volatility. Unfortunately, however, obtaining good measures of volume and/or order flow is expensive or difficult in decentralized markets such as foreign exchange. We investigate the extent that Japanese capital flows?which are released weekly?reflect information arrival that improves foreign exchange and equity volatility forecasts. We find that capital flows can help explain transitory shocks to GARCH volatility. Transactions by Japanese residents in foreign bond markets have the most explanatory power among capital flows and that power is much greater in the second subsample.

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  • Brett W. Fawley & Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "Capital flows and Japanese asset volatility," Working Papers 2011-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2011-034
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    Cited by:

    1. A. B. M. Rabiul Alam Beg & Sajid Anwar, 2014. "Detecting volatility persistence in GARCH models in the presence of the leverage effect," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2205-2213, December.
    2. Prabhath Jayasinghe & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2014. "Exchange Rate Exposure of Sectoral Returns and Volatilities: Further Evidence From Japanese Industrial Sectors," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 216-236, May.

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    Keywords

    Capital movements; Foreign exchange; Japan;
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