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Evaluating state tax revenue variability: a portfolio approach

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  • Thomas A. Garrett

Abstract

State revenue variability is evaluated using a volatility model rooted in portfolio theory. The model evaluates how closely a state's revenue portfolio is constructed to minimize variability in total state tax revenue. The model complements parametric methods of revenue variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Garrett, 2006. "Evaluating state tax revenue variability: a portfolio approach," Working Papers 2006-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 2003. "Political Institutions and Policy Choices: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 7-73, March.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    3. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-52, December.
    4. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases Over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 535-552, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erick Michael Elder & Gary A. Wagner, 2012. "A simple approach to balancing government budgets over the business cycle," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 677-681, May.
    2. Marina Malkina, 2019. "How Change in Industry Mix Can Improve the Financial Performance of Regional Economies: Evidence from the Portfolio Approach," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(6), pages 1561-1575.
    3. Marina Yurievna Malkina, 2018. "Instability of Financial Return of Regional Economies and Its Determinants," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 88-114.
    4. Joshua Hall & Antonis Koumpias, 2015. "The Volatility of School District Income Tax Revenues: Is Tax Base Diversification a Good Idea?," Working Papers 15-14, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    5. Yota Deli & Derek Lambert & Martina Lawless & Kieran McQuinn & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2017. "How Sensitive is Irish Income Tax Revenue to Underlying Economic Activity?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 317-336.
    6. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "The growth and variability of local taxes: An application to the Italian regions," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1601, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    7. Marina Malkina & Rodion Balakin, 2020. "Risks of Regional Tax Systems and Their Portfolio Decomposition: The Case of Modern Russia," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(6), pages 995-1009.
    8. Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina & Sofiia R. Borisova, 2023. "Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 8-26, December.
    9. Marina Malkina & Rodion Balakin, 2015. "Correlation Assessment of Tax System Risk and Profitability in the Russian Regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 241-255.

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    Keywords

    Taxation; Revenue;

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