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Leaning Against the Data: Policymaker Communications under State-Based Forward Guidance

Author

Listed:
  • Taeyoung Doh
  • Joseph W. Gruber
  • Dongho Song

Abstract

A purported benefit of state-based forward guidance is that the private sector adjusts the expected stance of policy without further policymaker communications. This assumes a shared understanding of how policymakers are interpreting the data and that policymakers are consistent in their assessment of the data. Using text analysis, we test whether the FOMC’s introduction of state-based forward guidance in December 2012 changed the tone of policymaker communications. We find that policymakers tended to downplay positive data following the introduction of the guidance, in effect leaning against the data and reinforcing the dependence of policy expectations on policymaker communications.

Suggested Citation

  • Taeyoung Doh & Joseph W. Gruber & Dongho Song, 2022. "Leaning Against the Data: Policymaker Communications under State-Based Forward Guidance," Research Working Paper RWP 22-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:94764
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2022-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Forward guidance; Financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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