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The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

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  • JEREMY C. STEIN
  • ADI SUNDERAM

Abstract

We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: the central bank has private information about its long‐run target rate and is averse to bond market volatility. In this setting, the central bank gradually impounds changes in its target into the policy rate. Such gradualism represents an attempt to not spook the bond market. However, this effort is partially undone in equilibrium, as markets rationally react more to a given move when the central bank moves more gradually. This time‐consistency problem means that society would be better off if the central bank cared less about the bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2018. "The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1015-1060, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:73:y:2018:i:3:p:1015-1060
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12614
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2022. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 30480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2023. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 87-103.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2353-2392, July.
    5. Elena Carletti & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2021. "Supervisory Incentives in a Banking Union," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 455-470, January.
    6. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Armelius, Hanna & Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Giampaolo Bonomi & Ali Uppal, 2023. "Kites and Quails: Monetary Policy and Communication with Strategic Financial Markets," Papers 2305.08958, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2020. "China’s Model of Managing the Financial System," Working Papers 2020-45, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    11. H. E. Cha & Raymond Jay Lim, 2024. "Model‐based estimation in monetary policy inertia and it's another possibility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2077-2094, April.
    12. Picault, Matthieu & Raffestin, Louis, 2020. "The other side of forward guidance: Are central banks constrained by financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    13. Huang, Shao’an & Qiu, Zhigang & Wang, Gaowang & Wang, Xiaodan, 2022. "Government intervention through informed trading in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Prasanna Gai & Sherry X. Wu, 2023. "On Market‐Friendly Central Bankers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 238-252, June.
    15. Markus K Brunnermeier & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2022. "China’s Model of Managing the Financial System," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 3115-3153.
    16. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 26290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gai, Prasanna & Lou, Edmund & Wu, Sherry X., 2020. "Targeted disclosure and monetary policy flexibility: A simple model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    18. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Taeyoung Doh & Joseph W. Gruber & Dongho Song, 2022. "Leaning Against the Data: Policymaker Communications under State-Based Forward Guidance," Research Working Paper RWP 22-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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