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Rushing into American Dream? House Prices, Timing of Homeownership, and Adjustment of Consumer Credit

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In this paper we use a large panel of individuals from Consumer Credit Panel dataset to study the timing of homeownership as a function of credit constraints and expectations of future house price. Our panel data allows us to track individuals over time and we model the transition probability of their first home purchase. We find that in MSAs with highest quartile house price growth, the median individual become homeowners earlier by 5 years in their lifecycle compared to MSAs with lowest quartile house price growth. The result suggests that the effect of expectation dominates the effect of credit constraints and high price growth leads individuals to purchase home earlier. We further study other credit/loan behaviors around first-home purchases for young and old buyers. We find that younger buyers make more adjustments in their finances after the purchase? taking out more debt/credit, and yet they do not appear to experience larger increase in delinquency than older buyers.

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  • Sumit Agarwal & Luojia Hu & Xing Huang, 2013. "Rushing into American Dream? House Prices, Timing of Homeownership, and Adjustment of Consumer Credit," Working Paper Series WP-2013-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2013-13
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    Cited by:

    1. Carole Bonnet & Bertrand Garbinti & Sébastien Grobon, 2018. "Rising inequalities in access to home ownership among young households in France, 1973-2013," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 500-501-5, pages 117-138.
    2. Zachary Bleemer & Meta Brown & Donghoon Lee & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2014. "Tuition, jobs, or housing: what's keeping millennials at home?," Staff Reports 700, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Homeownership; Consumer Finance; Credit Constraints; Life Cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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