IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/478.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On risk, rational expectations, and efficient asset markets

Author

Listed:
  • Dara Akbarian
  • Guy V. G. Stevens

Abstract

The notion of asset market efficiency -- that market prices \"fully reflect\" all available information -- requires the operation of mechanisms that rapidly incorporate new information into asset prices. Particularly problematic -- both theoretically and empirically -- has been the case where new information is not widely shared, so-called \"strong-form\" efficiency. This paper examines the relevance of a mechanism for attaining strong-form efficiency based on knowledgeable investors being willing to take large positions in order to eliminate unexploited profit opportunities. We examine theoretically and empirically, the latter using daily stock market data, the impact of a number of factors on the efficacy of this mechanism: the portfolio size and degree of risk aversion of potential investors, the ability to borrow, and the hedging opportunities provided by the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Dara Akbarian & Guy V. G. Stevens, 1994. "On risk, rational expectations, and efficient asset markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 478, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:478
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1994/478/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1994/478/ifdp478.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    2. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
    3. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-1196, December.
    4. Baesel, Jerome B. & Stein, Garry R., 1979. "The Value of Information: Inferences from the Profitability of Insider Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 553-571, September.
    5. Stephen J. DeCanio, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57.
    6. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-536, May/June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo Grinspun, 1995. "Learning rational expectations in an asset market," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 215-243, October.
    2. Linn, Scott C. & Stanhouse, Bryan E., 1997. "The economic advantage of least squares learning in a risky asset market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 303-319.
    3. Kelly, David L. & Shorish, Jamsheed, 2000. "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 215-250, December.
    4. Salm, Christian A. & Schuppli, Michael, 2010. "Positive feedback trading in stock index futures: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 313-322, December.
    5. J. Runde & C. Torr*, 1985. "Divergent Expectations and Rational Expectations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 53(3), pages 142-147, September.
    6. Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-340, June.
    7. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    9. Mitja Steinbacher & Matthias Raddant & Fariba Karimi & Eva Camacho Cuena & Simone Alfarano & Giulia Iori & Thomas Lux, 2021. "Advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social behavior," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Cooper, Kristen B. & Schneider, Henry S. & Waldman, Michael, 2017. "Limited rationality and the strategic environment: Further theory and experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 188-208.
    11. Chater, Nick & Oaksford, Mike & Nakisa, Ramin & Redington, Martin, 2003. "Fast, frugal, and rational: How rational norms explain behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 63-86, January.
    12. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kuchiki, Akifumi & Ogawa, Kazuo, 1990. "Formation of Expectations and Learning in the Market," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO), vol. 28(1), pages 42-66, March.
    14. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    15. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 18, pages 473-520, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Richard S. J. Tol & In Chang Hwang & Frédéric Reynès, 2012. "The Effect of Learning on Climate Policy under Fat-tailed Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 5312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    18. Singal, Vijay & Xu, Zhaojin, 2011. "Selling winners, holding losers: Effect on fund flows and survival of disposition-prone mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2704-2718, October.
    19. Alexander, Corinne E., 2002. "The Role Of Seed Company Supplied Information In Farmers' Decisions," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19617, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Time Varying Spillovers between the Online Search Volume and Stock Returns: Case of CESEE Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-30, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:478. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.