IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/448.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic risk and asset pricing: estimating the apt with observable factors

Author

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a new maximum likelihood method for estimating the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model with observable risk factors. The approach involves simultaneous estimation of the factor loadings and risk premiums and can be applied to return panel with more securities than time series observations per security. Observable economic factors are found to account for 25 to 40 percent of the covariation in U.S. equity returns, and the APT pricing restrictions cannot be rejected for most sample periods. A significant \"firm size anomaly\" is measured, but it may be partly due to sample selection bias.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ammer, 1993. "Macroeconomic risk and asset pricing: estimating the apt with observable factors," International Finance Discussion Papers 448, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:448
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1993/448/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1993/448/ifdp448.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    2. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    3. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    4. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. "An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December.
    5. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:721-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    9. Huberman, Gur & Schwert, G William, 1985. "Information Aggregation, Inflation, and the Pricing of Indexed Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 92-114, February.
    10. Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September.
    11. Gur Huberman & Zhenyu Wang, 2005. "Arbitrage pricing theory," Staff Reports 216, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Ammer, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risk, and stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 464, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. John Ammer, 1996. "Macroeconomic state variables as determinants of asset price covariances," International Finance Discussion Papers 553, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    2. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    3. Kevin P. Evans & Alan E. H. Speight, 2006. "Real‐Time Risk Pricing Over the Business Cycle: Some Evidence for the UK," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1‐2), pages 263-283, January.
    4. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    5. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    6. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    7. Semenov, Andrei, 2021. "Measuring the stock's factor beta and identifying risk factors under market inefficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-649.
    8. John Ammer, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risk, and stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 464, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    10. Martin Wallmeier, 2000. "Determinanten erwarteter Renditen am deutschen Aktienmarkt — Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand ausgewählter Kennzahlen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 27-57, February.
    11. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2001. "What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns?," NBER Working Papers 8240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    13. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    14. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
    15. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ronnie Sadka, 2009. "Aggregate Earnings and Asset Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1097-1133, December.
    16. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    17. Shanken, Jay & Weinstein, Mark I., 2006. "Economic forces and the stock market revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 129-144, March.
    18. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    19. Cowan, Adrian M. & Joutz, Frederick L., 2006. "An unobserved component model of asset pricing across financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 86-107.
    20. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2019. "Are cash-flow betas really bad? Evidence from the Greater Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 58-68.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arbitrage; Macroeconomics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.