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War and peace: recovering the market's probability distribution of crude oil futures prices during the Gulf crisis

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  • William R. Melick
  • Charles P. Thomas

Abstract

This paper investigates the market's expectations for oil prices during the Persian Gulf crisis. To do so a general method for using options markets to recover the implied distribution for futures prices is developed. The method applies to a wide class of distributions. In particular, it is not limited to those distributions arising from diffusion or jump-diffusion processes.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Melick & Charles P. Thomas, 1992. "War and peace: recovering the market's probability distribution of crude oil futures prices during the Gulf crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 437, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:437
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/437/ifdp437.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bates, D.S., 1990. "The Crash Of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence From Options Markets," Weiss Center Working Papers 28-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    2. James A. Overdahl & H. Lee Matthews, 1988. "The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    3. David S. Bates, "undated". "The Crash of '87: Was it Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    5. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. "Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-320, June.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    7. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    8. Trevor S. Breusch, 1986. "Hypothesis Testing in Unidentified Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 635-651.
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    Cited by:

    1. Datta, Deepa Dhume & Londono, Juan M. & Ross, Landon J., 2017. "Generating options-implied probability densities to understand oil market events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 440-457.
    2. William R. Melick & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "Using options prices to infer PDF'S for asset prices: an application to oil prices during the Gulf crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 541, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Michael P. Leahy & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "The sovereignty option: the Quebec referendum and market views on the Canadian dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 555, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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