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Anticipations of foreign exchange volatility and bid-ask spreads

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  • Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

The paper studies the effect of the market's perceived exchange rate volatility on bid-ask spreads. The anticipated volatility is extracted from currency options data. An increase in the perceived volatility is found to widen bid-ask spreads. The direction of the effect is consistent with an option model of the spread, but the magnitude is smaller. An increase in trading volume of spot exchange rates also widens the spread. The omission of the trading volume, however, does not bias the estimate of the effect of the volatility on the spreads. Although the spread-volatility relations implied by the option model of the spread is close to linear, some form of nonlinearity can still be detected from the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Shang-Jin Wei, 1991. "Anticipations of foreign exchange volatility and bid-ask spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 409, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:409
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    1. Black, Stanley W., 1991. "Transactions costs and vehicle currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 512-526, December.
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    13. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Giampaolo Galli & Alberto Giovannini, 1996. "Introduction to "The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 1-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alexander Mende, 2006. "09/11 on the USD/EUR foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 213-222.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-613, November.
    5. Detken, Carsten & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    6. Gabriele Galati, 2000. "Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: evidence from emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 93, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2005. "Were Bid-Ask Spreads in the Foreign Exchange Market Excessive During the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2005/034, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    11. Geir H. Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2002. "Volume and Volatility in the FX-Market: Does it matter who you are?," CESifo Working Paper Series 786, CESifo.
    12. Hua, Mingshu, 2009. "A study on foreign exchange dealers' bid-ask spread quote behavior," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 506-523, September.
    13. Hartmann, Philipp, 1998. "Do Reuters spreads reflect currencies' differences in global trading activity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 757-784, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates; International trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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