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Challenges for the future of Chinese economic growth

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  • Jane Haltmaier

Abstract

The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6 percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1 percent by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Jane Haltmaier, 2013. "Challenges for the future of Chinese economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 1072, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Yanrui Wu, 2016. "China's Capital Stock Series by Region and Sector," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 11(1), pages 156-172, March.
    3. Holz, Carsten A., 2006. "New capital estimates for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-185.
    4. Li, Kui-Wai, 2003. "China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources," Center Discussion Papers 28469, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2017. "How severe will the growth slowdown in China caused by the structural change be? An evaluation based on experiences from Japan and South Korea," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 269-287, July.
    3. Arpita Chatterjee & Richa Saraf, 2017. "Impact of China on World Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters," Discussion Papers 2017-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    4. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lee, Hyun & Zhao, Kai & Zou, Fei, 2022. "Does the early retirement policy really benefit women?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 330-345.
    6. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    7. Zhou, Nan & Price, Lynn & Yande, Dai & Creyts, Jon & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Lu, Hongyou & Feng, Wei & Liu, Xu & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Tian, Zhiyu & Yang, Hongwei & Bai, Quan & Zhu, Yuezhong & Xio, 2019. "A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 793-819.

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