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The Macroeconomic Effects of Excess Savings

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Abstract

We study the consequences of shocks to the household wealth distribution in dynamic general equilibrium by characterizing the rate at which excess wealth is depleted. Analytical results link the aggregate decumulation rate to the distribution of the additional balances, micro intertemporal marginal propensities to consume, and general equilibrium feedback. A quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model matches the depletion path of the excess savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic across the income distribution. The model predicts a substantial but steadily waning boost to consumption and explains up to 40 percent of the surge in inflation observed in 2020 and 2021.

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  • Bence Bardóczy & Jae W. Sim & Andreas Tischbirek, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Excess Savings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-62
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.062
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Excess savings; Heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) models; Incomplete markets; Household portfolios; Inflation dynamics; COVID-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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