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Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)

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Abstract

Economists and economic policymakers believe that households' and firms' expectations of future inflation are a key determinant of actual inflation. A review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature suggests that this belief rests on extremely shaky foundations, and a case is made that adhering to it uncritically could easily lead to serious policy errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy B. Rudd, 2021. "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-62
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gordon, Robert J., 1976. "Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 185-219, April.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    4. Jeremy B. Rudd, 2020. "Underlying Inflation: Its Measurement and Significance," FEDS Notes 2020-09-18-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2020. "Sticky Wage Models and Labor Supply Constraints," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 284-318, July.
    6. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    7. Usher, Dan (ed.), 1980. "The Measurement of Capital," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226843001, October.
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    9. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    10. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    12. Michael D. Bordo & Athanasios Orphanides, 2013. "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord08-1, June.
    13. Jesus Felipe & Franklin M. Fisher, 2003. "Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists should Know," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 208-262, May.
    14. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    2. Pedro Elosegui & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2024. "Firm's Price Expectations: An Empirical Analysis using BCRAs' Survey of Business Economic Perspectives," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(83), pages 97-116, May.
    3. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2021. "What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?," BIS Working Papers 980, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. PINSHI, Christian P., 2022. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," MPRA Paper 111709, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Expectations; Inflation; Wage determination; Wage-price spiral;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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