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Supply-Side Effects of Pandemic Mortality: Insights from an Overlapping-Generations Model

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Abstract

We use an overlapping generation model to explore the implications of mortality during pandemics for the economy's productive capacity. Under current epidemiological projections for the progression of COVID-19, our model suggests that mortality will have, in itself, at most small effects on output and factor prices. The reason is that projected mortality is small in proportion to the population and skewed toward individuals who are retired from the labor force. That said, we show that if the spread of COVID-19 is not contained, or if the ongoing pandemic were to follow a mortality pattern similar to the 1918-1920 Great Influenza pandemic, then the effects on the productive capacity would be economically significant and persist for decades.

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  • Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & J. David López-Salido, 2020. "Supply-Side Effects of Pandemic Mortality: Insights from an Overlapping-Generations Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-060, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-60
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.060
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Production and supply

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    Cited by:

    1. Giuli, Francesco & Maugeri, Gabriele, 2023. "Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-Macro Model to Italy," MPRA Paper 118422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Giuli, Francesco & Maugeri, Gabriele, 2022. "Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-RBC Model to Italy," MPRA Paper 114673, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Potential output; Real wage; Equilibrium real interest rate; Demographics; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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