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Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's \"The Role of Monetary Policy\"

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Abstract

This paper analyzes Milton Friedman's (1968) article \"The Role of Monetary Policy,\" via a discussion of seven fallacies concerning the article. These fallacies are: (1) \"The Role of Monetary Policy\" was Friedman?s first public statement of the natural rate hypothesis. (2) The Friedman-Phelps Phillips curve was already presented in Samuelson and Solow's (1960) analysis. (3) Friedman's specification of the Phillips curve was based on perfect competition and no nominal rigidities. (4) Friedman?s (1968) account of monetary policy in the Great Depression contradicted the Monetary History's version. (5) Friedman (1968) stated that a monetary expansion will keep the unemployment rate and the real interest rate below their natural rates for two decades. (6) The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates invalidates the natural rate hypothesis. (7) Friedman's (1968) treatment of an interest-rate peg was refuted by the rational expectations revolution. The discussion lays out the reasons why each of these seven items is a fallacy and infers key aspects of the framework underlying Friedman?s (1968) analysis.

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  • Edward Nelson, 2018. "Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's \"The Role of Monetary Policy\"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-13
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.013
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    1. Gordon, Robert J., 1976. "Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 185-219, April.
    2. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
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    4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2017. "Friedman’s Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," CEPR Discussion Papers 12442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    6. Franco Modigliani, 1977. "The monetarist controversy; or, should we forsake stabilization policies?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr suppl, pages 27-46.
    7. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    9. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    10. Robert E. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2018. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 121-134, Winter.
    11. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    12. McCallum, Bennett T., 1986. "Some issues concerning interest rate pegging, price level determinacy, and the real bills doctrine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 135-160, January.
    13. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J., 1986. "The failure of the bank of United States: A reappraisal : A reply," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 199-204, April.
    14. Nelson, Edward & Schwartz, Anna J., 2008. "The impact of Milton Friedman on modern monetary economics: Setting the record straight on Paul Krugman's "Who was Milton Friedman?"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 835-856, May.
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    16. Friedman, Milton, 2008. "Milton Friedman on Economics," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226263496, June.
    17. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    18. Karl Brunner & Allan H. Meltzer, 1968. "What Did We Learn from the Monetary Experience of the United States in the Great Depression?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 1(2), pages 334-348, May.
    19. Friedman, Milton, 1970. "Controls on Interest Rates Paid by Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 15-32, February.
    20. Robert G. King, 2008. "The Phillips curve and U.S. macroeconomic policy : snapshots, 1958-1996," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 311-359.
    21. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    22. Albert Rees, 1965. "An Incomes Policy for the United States?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38, pages 374-374.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    24. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. David Laidler, 1990. "The legacy of the monetarist controversy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 49-64.
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    2. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference \"Strategies for Monetary Policy,\" Stanford University, Stanford, California, May 3, 201," Speech 1058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher effect; Milton Friedman; Phillips curve; Liquidity effect; Natural rate hypothesis; Price stickiness; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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