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Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions

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Abstract

We provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets, but is not persistent following strong markets. Specifically, we construct two performance measures, DownsideReturns and UpsideReturns, conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector returns. After adjusting for risks, funds in the highest DownsideReturns quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by about 7% in the subsequent year, whereas funds with better UpsideReturns do not outperform subsequently. The DownsideReturns can predict future fund performance over a horizon as long as 3 years, for both winners and losers, and for funds with few share restrictions.

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  • Zheng Sun & Ashley W. Wang & Lu Zheng, 2016. "Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-30
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.030
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Metzger & Vijay Shenai, 2019. "Hedge Fund Performance during and after the Crisis: A Comparative Analysis of Strategies 2007–2017," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional performance; Hedge funds; Performance Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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