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Modeling Money Market Spreads: What Do We Learn about Refinancing Risk?

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  • Vincent Brousseau
  • Kleopatra Nikolaou
  • Huw Pill

Abstract

We quantify the effect of refinancing risk on euro area money market spreads, a major factor driving spreads during the financing crisis. With the advent of the crisis, market participants' perception of their ability to refinance over a given period of time changed radically. As a result, borrowers preferred to obtain funding for longer tenors and lenders were willing to provide funding for shorter tenors. This discrepancy resulted in a need to refinance more frequently in order to borrow over a given horizon, thus increasing refinancing risk. We measure refinancing risk by quantifying the sensitivity of the spread to the refinancing frequency. In order to do so we introduce a model to price EURIBOR-based money market spreads vis--vis the overnight index swap. We adopt a methodology akin to a factor model in which the parameters determining the spreads are the intensity of the crisis, its expected half-life, and the sensitivity of spreads to the refinancing frequency. Results suggest that refinancing risk affects the spread significantly across time, albeit in a largely varying manner. Central bank interventions have reduced the spreads as well as the effect of refinancing risk on them.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Brousseau & Kleopatra Nikolaou & Huw Pill, 2014. "Modeling Money Market Spreads: What Do We Learn about Refinancing Risk?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-112, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jessica Reale, 2022. "Interbank market and funding liquidity risk in a stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 734-769, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; liquidity risk; money market spread; money markets; refinancing risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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