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Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy

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Abstract

This paper compares the predictions for the market value of firms from the Gordon growth model with those from a dynamic general equilibrium model of production. The predictions for movements in the market value of firms in response to a decline in the required return or an increase in the growth rate of the economy are quantitatively and qualitatively different across the models. While previous research has illustrated how a drop in the required return or an increase in the growth rate of the economy can explain the runup in equity values in the 1990s in the Gordon growth model, the consideration of production overturns these results and illustrates that auxiliary implications of such shifts in fundamentals, such as a sharp increase in the investment intensity of the economy, are not supported by the data in the late 1990s. This tension between theory and data suggests that the skyrocketing market value of firms in the second half of the 1990s may reflect a degree of irrational exuberance.

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  • Michael T. Kiley, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2000-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    3. Jason G. Cummins, 2005. "A New Approach to the Valuation of Intangible Capital," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 47-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pierre Lafourcade, 2003. "Asset prices and rents in a GE model with imperfect competition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2008. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 45-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2006. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 791-811, July.
    8. Carl D. Lantz & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2001. "Consumption, savings, and the meaning of the wealth effect in general equilibrium," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-71.

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    Keywords

    Stock market; Stock - Prices; Production (Economic theory); Investments;
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