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The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries

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  • Robert E. Hall
  • Marianna Kudlyak

Abstract

We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the Phillips curve. We show that the natural rate closely tracked the actual rate during the long recovery that began in 2009 and ended in 2020. We explain how the common finding of research in the Phillips-curve framework of low-often extremely low-response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly close tracking of the natural rate and the actual rate in recoveries. Our interpretation of the data contrasts to that of most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the at Phillips curve is an illusion caused by assuming that the natural rate of unemployment has little or no movement during recoveries.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2023. "The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries," Working Paper Series 2023-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97316
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2023-33
    Note: Kudlyak presented some material from this paper as a part of her Alejandro Justiniano memorial keynote address at the annual Federal Reserve System Macroeconomics meeting, November 9 and 10, 2021.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
    2. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; recoveries; unemployment; recessions; monetary policy; natural rate of unemployment; NAIRU; inflation; anchor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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