IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/2004-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values

Author

Listed:
  • John Krainer
  • Mark M. Spiegel
  • Nobuyoshi Yamori

Abstract

We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly prices adjust following a shock to fundamentals. We examine the predictions of the model by studying price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1990 stock market crash. Commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. As we would posit that the variance of buyer valuations would be greater for residential real estate than for commercial real estate, this model matches the Japanese experience.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer & Mark M. Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2005. "Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values," Working Paper Series 2004-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp04-16bk.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai‐Sun Kwong & Charles Ka‐Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123, February.
    2. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-269, June.
    3. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, March.
    4. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
    5. David Kelly & Stephen LeRoy, 2007. "Liquidity and Liquidation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(3), pages 553-572, June.
    6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    7. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    8. Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu, 1997. "The housing question in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 613-641, November.
    9. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1988. "Saving for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 351-384, September.
    10. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
    11. Yukio Noguchi & James M. Poterba, 1994. "Housing Markets in the United States and Japan," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number nogu94-2.
    12. Hoshi, Takeo, 2001. "What Happened to Japanese Banks?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29, February.
    13. Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Pricing Real Assets with Costly Search," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90.
    14. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    15. Miki Seko, 1994. "Housing Finance in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets in the United States and Japan, pages 49-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Yukio Noguchi, 1994. "Land Prices and House Prices in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets in the United States and Japan, pages 11-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Is Japan's saving rate high?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 3-9.
    18. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    19. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy, 2002. "Equilibrium valuation of illiquid assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 19(2), pages 223-242.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 340-370, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Working Papers 263, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. An-Pin Wei & Wei-Ling Huang & Chih-Yuan Yang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2013. "The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 27(2), pages 131-143, November.
    4. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Are Asia-Pacific Housing Prices Too High For Comfort?," Working Papers 2008-11, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    5. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Krainer & Mark M. Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2010. "Asset Price Persistence and Real Estate Market Illiquidity: Evidence from Japanese Land Values," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 171-196, June.
    2. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    3. Robert Edelstein & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Short-Term Buyers and Housing Market Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 654-689, November.
    4. Genesove, David & Han, Lu, 2012. "Search and matching in the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 31-45.
    5. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    6. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    7. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    8. Suarez, Javier & Ceron, Jose A., 2006. "Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gan, Li & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Qinghua, 2018. "Market thickness and the impact of unemployment on housing market outcomes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 27-49.
    10. Chien-Wen Peng & I-Chun Tsai & Wey-Wen Wu, 2011. "Price and Volume Relationship under Housing Presale System," ERES eres2011_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Jim Clayton & Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2010. "Price-volume Correlation in the Housing Market: Causality and Co-movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 14-40, January.
    12. Paul E. Carrillo & Erik Robert De Wit & William D. Larson, 2012. "Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands," Working Papers 2012-11, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    13. Yong Tu & Seow Ong & Ying Han, 2009. "Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 254-274, April.
    14. Martijn I. Dröes & Marc K. Francke, 2018. "What Causes the Positive Price-Turnover Correlation in European Housing Markets?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 618-646, November.
    15. Vílchez, Diego, 2015. "Evaluando las Dinámicas de Precios en el Sector Inmobiliario: Evidencia para Perú," Working Papers 2015-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    16. Paul E. Carrillo & Eric R. Wit & William Larson, 2015. "Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the United States and the Netherlands," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 609-651, September.
    17. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    18. Jan Rouwendal & Simonetta Longhi, 2007. "The Effect of Consumers' Expectations in a Booming Housing Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-078/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Hubbard R. Glenn & Mayer Christopher J, 2009. "The Mortgage Market Meltdown and House Prices," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-47, March.
    20. Genesove, David & Hansen, James, 2016. "The Role of Auctions and Negotiation in Housing Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 11392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real property; Prices; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.