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Climate Risk, Insurance Premiums and the Effects on Mortgage and Credit Outcomes

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Abstract

As climate change exacerbates natural disasters, homeowners’ insurance premiums are rising dramatically. We examine the impact of premium increases on borrowers’ mortgage and credit outcomes using new data on home insurance policies for 6.7 million borrowers. We find that higher premiums increase the probability of mortgage delinquency, as well as prepayment (driven mainly by relocation). The results hold using a novel instrumental variable. The delinquency effect is greater for borrowers with higher debt-to-income ratios. Both delinquency and prepayment effects are present in both GSE and non-GSE mortgages. We also find that higher premiums significantly raise the probability of credit card delinquency and worsen borrowers’ creditworthiness. Our findings unveil a channel through which climate change can threaten household financial health and potentially impact the stability of the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Shan Ge & Stephanie Johnson & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2025. "Climate Risk, Insurance Premiums and the Effects on Mortgage and Credit Outcomes," Working Papers 2505, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:99475
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2505
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amine Ouazad & Matthew E Kahn, 2022. "Mortgage Finance and Climate Change: Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3617-3665.
    2. Natee Amornsiripanitch & David Wylie, 2023. "Who Bears Climate-Related Physical Risk?," Working Papers 23-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Richard Berner & Robert Engle & Hyeyoon Jung, 2021. "CRISK: Measuring the Climate Risk Exposure of the Financial System," Staff Reports 977, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Judson Boomhower & Meredith Fowlie & Jacob Gellman & Andrew Plantinga, 2024. "How Are Insurance Markets Adapting to Climate Change? Risk Classification and Pricing in the Market for Homeowners Insurance," NBER Working Papers 32625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Georgic, Will & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2022. "Stocks, flows, and flood insurance: A nationwide analysis of the capitalized impact of annual premium discounts on housing values," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Markus Baldauf & Lorenzo Garlappi & Constantine Yannelis & José Scheinkman, 2020. "Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1256-1295.
    7. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Krishna Rao & Johannes Stroebel & Andreas Weber & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate [Abrupt climate change]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3527-3571.
    8. Justin Murfin & Matthew Spiegel & Jose Scheinkman, 2020. "Is the Risk of Sea Level Rise Capitalized in Residential Real Estate?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1217-1255.
    9. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What's at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.
    10. Benjamin J. Keys & Philip Mulder, 2020. "Neglected No More: Housing Markets, Mortgage Lending, and Sea Level Rise," NBER Working Papers 27930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; insurance; mortgage; delinquency; prepayment; credit cards;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance
    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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