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Do oil endowment and productivity matter for accumulation of international reserves?

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Listed:
  • Rasmus Fatum
  • Wenjie Hui
  • Guozhong Zhu

Abstract

We develop a dynamic stochastic optimization model with oil price shocks to show that countries with certain combinations of oil endowment and productivity have strong precautionary incentives to accumulate foreign reserves in response to oil price shocks. Using the Simulated Method of Moments to estimate the model we demonstrate how oil price shocks are absorbed by changes in foreign reserves which, in turn, leads to less variation in aggregate consumption. Along with productivity and oil endowment, we also consider as determinants of reserves holding conventional variables such as trade- to-GDP ratio and capital openness. Overall, our results suggest that productivity and oil endowment are potentially important determinants of foreign reserves that for some countries should be considered as complements to conventional determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Fatum & Wenjie Hui & Guozhong Zhu, 2016. "Do oil endowment and productivity matter for accumulation of international reserves?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 291, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:291
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp291
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    1. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Iman Gunadi & Fiskara Indawan & Carla Sheila Wulandari, 2022. "The Dynamics Of Foreign Capital Flows In Indonesia: Sources And Implications On Bond Market And Bank Stability," Working Papers WP/03/2022, Bank Indonesia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign reserves; oil price shocks; precautionary demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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