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Acknowledging Uncertainty, 10-07-2016; Shadow Open Market Committee Fall Meeting, New York, NY

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  • Loretta J. Mester

Abstract

I would like to share my perspective as someone who has participated in some of those policy decisions. I will comment on how I approach monetary policymaking in an uncertain world, review the types of uncertainty policymakers and economists need to deal with, and provide some recommendations for improving monetary policy communications. Of course, the views I?ll present today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

Suggested Citation

  • Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Acknowledging Uncertainty, 10-07-2016; Shadow Open Market Committee Fall Meeting, New York, NY," Speech 77, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcsp:77
    as

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    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/speeches/sp-20161007-acknowledging-uncertainty.aspx
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    2. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    4. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
    5. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy: Low-Frequency Policymaking in a High-Frequency World," Speech 69, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    8. Charles F. Manski, 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-653, September.
    9. John B. Taylor, 2013. "Monetary Policy during the Past 30 Years with Lessons for the Next 30 Years," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 33(3), pages 333-345, Fall.
    10. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2012. "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 167-184.
    11. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 111-144, February.
    12. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "The Outlook for the National and Regional Economy and Monetary Policy: Low-Frequency Policymaking in a High-Frequency World," Speech 70, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    14. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 261-289, August.
    15. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    16. Janet L. Yellen, 2016. "The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future : a speech at \"Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future,\" a symposium sponsored by the Federal," Speech 906, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Communications; Monetary Policy; Uncertainty;
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