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Higher-order Moment Inequality Restrictions for SVARs

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Abstract

We introduce a method that exploits some non-Gaussian features of structural shocks to identify structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. More specifically, we propose combining inequality restrictions on the higher-order moments of the structural shocks of interest with other set-identifying constraints, typically sign restrictions. We illustrate how, in both large and small sample settings, higher-order moment restrictions considerably narrow the identification of monetary policy shocks compared with what is obtained with minimal sign restrictions typically used in the SVAR literature. The proposed methodology also provides new insights into the macroeconomic effects of sovereign risk in the euro area as well as the transmission of geopolitical risk to the US economy.

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  • Philippe Andrade & Filippo Ferroni & Leonardo Melosi, 2025. "Higher-order Moment Inequality Restrictions for SVARs," Working Papers 25-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:99752
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shock identification; skewness; kurtosis; sign restrictions; monetary policy; sovereign risk; geopolitical risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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