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Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach

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  • Kaiji Chen
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy. Second, we use the unique micro-banking data to identify and support the model's key mechanism. Third, we find that the output effect of credit supply shocks is not only economically and statistically significant but also consistent with the vector autogression evidence. Our mode estimation indicates that a negative one-standard-deviation shock to credit supply generates a loss of output by 1 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiji Chen & Tao Zha, 2015. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2015-08
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    Cited by:

    1. António R. Antunes & Tiago Cavalcanti, 2019. "Tighter Credit and Consumer Bankruptcy Insurance," Working Papers w201921, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Kapinos, Pavel & Kishor, N. Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Dynamic comovement among banks, systemic risk, and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    intermediation costs; credit supply channel; micro bank-level data; call reports; senior loan officers; identification; supply and demand; intermediation costs; endogenous monitoring activities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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