IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2004-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trading institutions and price discovery: the cash and futures markets for crude oil

Author

Listed:
  • Albert Ballinger
  • Gerald P. Dwyer
  • Ann B. Gillette

Abstract

We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert Ballinger & Gerald P. Dwyer & Ann B. Gillette, 2004. "Trading institutions and price discovery: the cash and futures markets for crude oil," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2004/wp0428.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jamison, Julian C. & Plott, Charles R., 1997. "Costly offers and the equilibration properties of the multiple unit double auction under conditions of unpredictable shifts of demand and supply," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 591-612, April.
    2. Ross M. Miller & Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith, 1977. "Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 91(4), pages 599-624.
    3. Douglas D. Davis & Charles A. Holt, 1996. "Price rigidities and institutional variations in markets with posted prices (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 9(1), pages 63-80.
    4. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    5. Jeremy Clark, 2002. "House Money Effects in Public Good Experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(3), pages 223-231, December.
    6. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    7. Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. Friedman, Daniel & Harrison, Glenn W & Salmon, Jon W, 1984. "The Informational Efficiency of Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 349-408, June.
    9. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    10. Smith, James L., 2002. "Oil and the economy: introduction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 163-168.
    11. Krogmeier, Joseph L. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Phillips, Owen R. & Schmitz, John D., 1997. "An Experimental Economics Approach to Analyzing Price Discovery in Forward and Spot Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 327-336, December.
    12. Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith, 1978. "An Experimental Examination of Two Exchange Institutions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 45(1), pages 133-153.
    13. Davis, Douglas D. & Harrison, Glenn W. & Williams, Arlington W., 1993. "Convergence to nonstationary competitive equilibria : An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 305-326, December.
    14. Forsythe, Robert & Palfrey, Thomas R & Plott, Charles R, 1984. "Futures Markets and Informational Efficiency: A Laboratory Examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 955-981, September.
    15. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    17. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    18. Krogmeier, Joseph L. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Phillips, Owen R. & Schmitz, John D., 1997. "An Experimental Economics Approach To Analyzing Price Discovery In Forward And Spot Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    2. Morone, Andrea & Nuzzo, Simone, 2015. "Market Efficiency, Trading Institutions and Information Mirages: evidence from an experimental asset market," MPRA Paper 67448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ortmann, Andreas, 2003. "Charles R. Plott's collected papers on the experimental foundations of economic and political science," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 555-575, August.
    4. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 554-569, July.
    5. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, October.
    6. Palan, Stefan, 2010. "Digital options and efficiency in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 506-522, September.
    7. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013, January-A.
    8. Olivier Guéant, 2016. "The Financial Mathematics of Market Liquidity: From Optimal Execution to Market Making," Post-Print hal-01393136, HAL.
    9. Katerina Sherstyuk & Krit Phankitnirundorn & Michael J. Roberts, 2021. "Randomized double auctions: gains from trade, trader roles, and price discovery," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(4), pages 1325-1364, December.
    10. Bondarenko, Oleg & Bossaerts, Peter, 2000. "Expectations and learning in Iowa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 1535-1555, September.
    11. Douglas D. Davis & Oleg Korenok, 2009. "Posted Offer Markets In Near‐Continuous Time: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 449-466, July.
    12. Martin Barner & Francesco Feri & Charles R. Plott, 2005. "On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 73-107, January.
    13. Koedijk, Kees & de Jong, Cyriel & Schnitzlein, Charles, 2002. "Stock Market Quality in the Prescence of a Traded Option," CEPR Discussion Papers 3173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    15. Eric M. Aldrich & Kristian López Vargas, 2020. "Experiments in high-frequency trading: comparing two market institutions," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 322-352, June.
    16. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    17. Søberg, Morten, 2003. "A laboratory stress-test of bid, double and offer auctions," Memorandum 05/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    18. Morten Søberg, 2002. "A laboratory stress-test of bid, double and offer auctions," Discussion Papers 327, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Peter Bossaerts, 2001. "Experiments with Financial Markets: Implications for Asset Pricing Theory," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 45(1), pages 17-32, March.
    20. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.