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The fire-armed police effect: evidences from a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil

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  • Arvate, Paulo Roberto
  • Souza, André Portela Fernandes de

Abstract

We estimate the impact of fire-armed police on violent crimes (homicides and acts of aggression) in a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil. In 2003, Brazilian legislators approved a law that regulates the use of firearms by the municipal police. We explore the population eligibility criterion as an instrumental variable of firearm possession in a linear regression discontinuity design. We find robust results that a municipal police force with firearms significantly reduces homicides and acts of aggression between 2002 and 2012. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence of more arrests, the incapacitation of criminals, and absence of deterrence.

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  • Arvate, Paulo Roberto & Souza, André Portela Fernandes de, 2016. "The fire-armed police effect: evidences from a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil," Textos para discussão 429, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samuel Cameron, 1988. "The Economics of Crime Deterrence: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 301-323, May.
    2. Azrael, Deborah & Hemenway, David, 2000. "'In the safety of your own home': results from a national survey on gun use at home," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 285-291, January.
    3. repec:bla:kyklos:v:41:y:1988:i:2:p:301-23 is not listed on IDEAS
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