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Impacto De Transmilenio En El Crimen De La Avenida Caracas Y Sus Vecindades

Author

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  • Álvaro José Moreno García

Abstract

En este estudio se toma la puesta en marcha del sistema de transporte masivo Transmilenio en la Avenida Caracas, una vía con altos índices de criminalidad en la ciudad de Bogotá, como un experimento natural para romper la simultaneidad entre crimen y políticas para combatirlo y para medir el impacto de la transformación urbana de la Avenida Caracas sobre el crimen de esta vía y de sus vecindades. Haciendo uso de modelos de econometría espacial y utilizando una metodología de diferencias en diferencias, se miden los cambios en el comportamiento de nueve diferentes tipos de crimen en 65 zonas geográficas de Bogotá aledanas a la Avenida Caracas. Se construyeron series de datos que contienen información de la ubicación geográfica exacta de los eventos de los nueve crímenes objeto de estudio para el período 1999-2002, en las 65 zonas mencionadas. Se encuentra que a lo largo de la Avenida Caracas la actividad criminal presentó caídas pronunciadas, aunque para el resto de la región objeto de estudio los resultados varían según el tipo de crimen y la proximidad a la Avenida. Se encuentra evidencia ya sea de disuasión o de desplazamiento para cada crimen específico y ausencia de efectos espaciales intertemporales en los homicidios.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro José Moreno García, 2005. "Impacto De Transmilenio En El Crimen De La Avenida Caracas Y Sus Vecindades," Documentos CEDE 2809, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:002809
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crimen; disuasión; desplazamiento; experimento natural; análisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C99 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Other
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R19 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Other

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