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From Energy-intensive to Innovation-led Growth: On the Transition Dynamics of China’s Economy

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  • Wei Jin

    (School of Public Policy, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China)

  • ZhongXiang Zhang

    (School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China)

Abstract

Whether China continues its current energy-intensive growth path or adopts a sustainable development prospect has significant implication for energy and climate governance. Building on a Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model incorporating the mechanism of endogenous technological change and its interaction with fossil energy use and economic growth, this paper contributes to an economic exposition of China’s potential transition from an energy-intensive to an innovation-led growth path. We find that in China’s initial growth period the small amount of capital stock creates higher dynamic benefits of capital investment and incentives of capital stock accumulation rather than R&D-related innovation. Accumulation of energy-consuming capital stock along this non-innovation-led growth path thus leads to an intensive use of fossil energy - an energy-intensive growth pattern. To avoid this undesirable outcome, China’s social planner should consider locating a transition point to an innovation-led balanced growth path (BGP). When the growth dynamics reaches that transition point, China’s economy would embark on investment in physical capital and R&D simultaneously, and make a transition into the innovation-led BGP along which consumption, capital investment, and R&D have a balanced share. Also in this innovation-led BGP, consumption, physical capital stock, and knowledge stock all grow, fossil energy uses decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2014. "From Energy-intensive to Innovation-led Growth: On the Transition Dynamics of China’s Economy," Working Papers 2014.100, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.100
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    1. Zha, Donglan & Kavuri, Anil Savio & Si, Songjian, 2018. "Energy-biased technical change in the Chinese industrial sector with CES production functions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 896-903.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological Innovation; Energy Consumption; Economic Growth Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment

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