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Do advance letters improve pre-election forecast accuracy?

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  • Christopher Mann

Abstract

The survey methodology literature has debated whether advance letters to potential survey respondents will reduce nonresponse bias and thereby improve the accuracy of preelection forecasts. This research note analyzes the results of experiments conducted in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania in which advance letters were sent to a random sample of potential survey respondents to 2002 preelection surveys. We find a significant increase in the overall response rate, although notably less than in past studies. However, the advance letters did not improve the representativeness of survey respondents or the accuracy of the election forecasts.

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  • Christopher Mann, 2005. "Do advance letters improve pre-election forecast accuracy?," Natural Field Experiments 00304, The Field Experiments Website.
    • Handle: RePEc:feb:natura:00304
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    1. Robert Voogt & Hetty Van Kempen, 2002. "Nonresponse Bias and Stimulus Effects in the Dutch National Election Study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 325-345, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lynn, Peter, 2014. "Targeted initial letters to longitudinal survey sample members: effects on response rates, response speed, and sample composition," Understanding Society Working Paper Series 2014-08, Understanding Society at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Michael W. Robbins & Geoffrey Grimm & Brian Stecher & V. Darleen Opfer, 2018. "A Comparison of Strategies for Recruiting Teachers Into Survey Panels," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(3), pages 21582440187, August.
    3. Christopher B. Mann, 2005. "Unintentional Voter Mobilization: Does Participation in Preelection Surveys Increase Voter Turnout?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 601(1), pages 155-168, September.

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