IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fds/dpaper/202101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Makram El-Shagi

    (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan)

  • Kiril Tochkov

    (Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX, US)

Abstract

The lack of developed financial markets and well-functioning transmission channels assigns monetary aggregates in emerging economies the potential role of nominal anchor, intermediate target, or informational variable for monetary policy. The effectiveness of this approach relies crucially on the correct measurement of money, which is not fulfilled by the conventional index based on the simple sum of financial assets. This paper calculates alternative Divisia monetary aggregates for Russia over the period 1998-2019, which account for the level of liquidity of a given monetary asset by assigning weights according to the usefulness of that asset for transaction services. Divisia is found to follow a growth pattern markedly different from the simple sum, whereby deviations between the two series are even more pronounced when foreign-currency accounts are included. We conduct three empirical exercises to demonstrate the advantages of Divisia over the simple sum. Divisia confirms the stability of the money demand function and reflects portfolio shifts in response to changes in the opportunity cost of simple sum. Lastly, Divisia mitigates the price puzzle phenomenon relative to the conventional measure. We conclude that Divisia monetary aggregates would improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2021. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    • Handle: RePEc:fds:dpaper:202101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cfds.henuecon.education/images/dpaper/WP_1_2021_Russia_Divisia.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & Biyan Tang, 2016. "Chinese Divisia Monetary Index and GDP Nowcasting," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 825-849, November.
    2. Iikka Korhonen & Aaron Mehrotra, 2010. "Money Demand in Post-Crisis Russia: Dedollarization and Remonetization," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 5-19, March.
    3. Heiner Mikosch & Laura Solanko, 2019. "Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 19-35, March.
    4. Sahar Bahmani & Ali Kutan, 2010. "How stable is the demand for money in emerging economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3307-3318.
    5. El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2019. "What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-83.
    6. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 6-23, March.
    7. Weill, Laurent, 2011. "How corruption affects bank lending in Russia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 230-243, June.
    8. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2019. "The demand for Divisia Money: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Korhonen, Iikka & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2017. "Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 366-378.
    10. Horváth, Roman & Komárek, Luboš & Rozsypal, Filip, 2011. "Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 523-536.
    11. Tuuli Juurikkala & Alexei Karas & Laura Solanko, 2011. "The Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission: Empirical Evidence from Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 109-121, February.
    12. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    13. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Bank of Russia Monetary Policy," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2005/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005.
    14. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    15. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 101-123, January.
    16. Krupkina, Anna & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Money demand models for Russia: A sectoral approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 31/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    18. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Elvira Takli, 2013. "Comparison of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates in GDP forecasting: a support vector machines approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1101-1115.
    20. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    21. Aaron Mehrotra & Tomáš Slacík, 2009. "Evaluating Inflation Determinants with a Money Supply Rule in Four Central and Eastern European EU Member States," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 6-21.
    22. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
    23. William A. Barnett & Soumya Suvra Bhadury & Taniya Ghosh, 2016. "An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 871-893, November.
    24. Victoria Dobrynskaya & Edouard Turkisch, 2010. "Economic diversification and Dutch disease in Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 283-302.
    25. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:17:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    27. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1999. "Money growth targeting by the Bundesbank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 681-701, June.
    28. Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2014. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates, the Great Ratios, and Classical Money Demand Functions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 229-241, February.
    29. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2018. "Targeting Constant Money Growth at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 159-204, March.
    30. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    31. Klaus Masuch & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Massimo Rostagno & Huw Pill, 2003. "The role of money in monetary policymaking," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 158-191, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    33. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    34. Alexey Ponomarenko & Elena Vasilieva & Franziska Schobert, 2014. "Feedback to the ECB’s Monetary Analysis: The Bank of Russia’s Experience with Some Key Tools," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 116-150, November.
    35. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_031 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2001. "From monetary targeting to inflation targeting : lessons from the industrialized countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2684, The World Bank.
    37. Ono, Shigeki, 2013. "The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 522-541.
    38. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    39. Drake, Leigh & Chrystal, K Alec, 1997. "Personal Sector Money Demand in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 188-206, April.
    40. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2006. "Does inflation or currency depreciation drive monetary policy in Russia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-179, June.
    42. Brigitte Granville & Sushanta Mallick, 2006. "Monetary Policy in Russia," Springer Books, in: Lúcio Vinhas de Souza & Oleh Havrylyshyn (ed.), Return to Growth in CIS Countries, chapter 0, pages 73-89, Springer.
    43. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 199-226.
    44. Barnett, William A, 1981. "The New Monetary Aggregates: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 485-489, November.
    45. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Mehrotra, Aaron & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2010. "Wealth effects and Russian money demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2010, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    47. Jane M. Binner & Alicia M. Gazely & Shu‐Heng Chen & Bin‐Tzong Chie, 2004. "Financial Innovation and Divisia Money in Taiwan: Comparative Evidence from Neural Network and Vector Error‐Correction Forecasting Models," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 213-224, April.
    48. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
    49. Sosunov, K., 2013. "Estimation of the Money Demand Function in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 89-99.
    50. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Vdovichenko, Anna G. & Voronina, Victoria G., 2006. "Monetary policy rules and their application in Russia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 145-162, June.
    52. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
    53. Makram El-Shagi & Yizhuang Zheng, 2020. "Money Demand: A Pseudo-Metastudy," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    54. Mr. Bernard J Laurens & Mr. Kelly Eckhold & Mr. Darryl King & Mr. Nils O Maehle & Abdul Naseer & Alain Durré, 2015. "The Journey to Inflation Targeting: Easier Said than Done The Case for Transitional Arrangements along the Road," IMF Working Papers 2015/136, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Umurcan Polat, 2018. "Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates: Any Empirical Relevance for Turkey?," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(1), pages 175-206.
    56. Dahalan, Jauhari & Sharma, Subhash C. & Sylwester, Kevin, 2005. "Divisia monetary aggregates and money demand for Malaysia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1137-1153, January.
    57. Katsuya Ito, 2008. "Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(17), pages 1-9.
    58. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    59. Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño & Mr. Jakob Horder & Mr. David S. Hoelscher, 1997. "Evolution of Monetary Policy Instruments in Russia," IMF Working Papers 1997/180, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Evgenii V. Gilenko, 2018. "Stability of Money Demand in the Russian Economy after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 7, pages 946-952.
    61. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 199-226, June.
    62. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
    63. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    64. repec:zbw:bofitp:2010_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    65. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    66. El-Shagi, Makram, 2021. "When Does Monetary Measurement Matter (Most)?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 240-256, January.
    67. Mäkinen, Mikko, 2016. "Nowcasting of Russian GDP growth," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhan, Minghua & Wang, Lijun & Zhan, Shuwei & Lu, Yao, 2023. "Does digital finance change the stability of money demand function? Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    3. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & Pepin, Dominique, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 841-879.
    4. Dery, Cosmas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2021. "Interest Rates, Money, And Economic Activity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1842-1891, October.
    5. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2024. "A granular investigation on the stability of money demand," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue FirstView, pages 1-26.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin, 2018. "Money demand stability, monetary overhang and inflation forecast in the CEE countries," Working Papers hal-01720319, HAL.
    8. Ono, Shigeki, 2013. "The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 522-541.
    9. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Russia: Identifying exchange rate shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 432-444, January.
    10. Zhan, Minghua & Wang, Lijun & Zhan, Shuwei & Lu, Yao, 2023. "Does digital finance change the stability of money demand function? Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    12. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2024. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks through the markets for reserves and money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva‐Leon & Liting Su, 2024. "The Credit‐Card‐Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1163-1202, August.
    14. William A. Barnett & Soumya Suvra Bhadury & Taniya Ghosh, 2016. "An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 871-893, November.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2010_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2022. "A reconsideration of money growth rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    17. Korhonen, Iikka & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2017. "Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 366-378.
    18. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2023. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the United States: The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 961-977, November.
    19. Jane M. Binner & logan J. Kelly, 2017. "Modelling Money Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Taiwan," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85, pages 104-120, September.
    20. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2020. "Functional monetary aggregates, monetary policy, and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    21. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2021. "A Classical View of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 333-366, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; monetary aggregates; Divisia; nowcasting; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fds:dpaper:202101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kerstin El-Shagi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sehencn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.