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Functional monetary aggregates, monetary policy, and business cycles

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  • Serletis, Apostolos
  • Xu, Libo

Abstract

In this paper, we take the economic approach to monetary aggregation. In the context of highly disaggregated demand systems, encompassing the full range of monetary assets in the United States, we estimate the effectively globally regular minflex Laurent (ML) and normalized quadratic (NQ) flexible functional forms. We produce the ML and NQ functional monetary aggregates, consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory, also addressing the issue of optimal monetary aggregation. We highlight the influence of measurement on statistical inference by investigating whether the ML and NQ functional monetary aggregates are of importance in resolving paradoxes associated with the measurement of money. In doing so, we also provide a comparison between the functional monetary aggregates and the Fed’s (broad) Sum M2 aggregate and the Center for Financial Stability (broad) Divisia M3 and Divisia M4 aggregates. Our detailed statistical analysis favors the functional monetary aggregates.

Suggested Citation

  • Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2020. "Functional monetary aggregates, monetary policy, and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:121:y:2020:i:c:s0165188920301627
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103994
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    4. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "The welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Ioannis Andreadis & Athanasios D. Fragkou & Theodoros E. Karakasidis & Apostolos Serletis, 2023. "Nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates: an application of recurrence quantification analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "A century and a half of the monetary base-stock market relationship," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 118-124.
    7. Ida, Daisuke, 2024. "The neo-Fisherian effect in a new Keynesian model with real money balances," MPRA Paper 120575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2023. "U.K. household-sector money demand during Brexit and the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Adrian R. Fleissig & James L. Swofford, 2023. "Habit persistence in assets demand," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(3), pages 975-985, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flexible functional forms; Demand systems; Divisia monetary aggregates; Monetary policy; Business cycle analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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