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"El hueco que deja el Diablo": Una estimación del fraude en el IRPF con microdatos tributarios

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  • Félix Domínguez Barrero
  • Julio López Laborda
  • Fernando Rodrigo Sauco

Abstract

Este trabajo aplica la metodología iniciada por Pissarides y Weber (1989) -y adaptada por Feldman y Slemrod (2007)- para estimar el fraude en el IRPF por fuentes de renta, que se basa en la detección de comportamientos distintos (por ejemplo, en el consumo) por parte de individuos que obtienen una renta de la misma cuantía pero procedente de distinta fuente. Esa diferencia de comportamiento informa -bajo determinadas hipótesis- de la existencia y el importe del fraude cometido. De acuerdo con el enfoque de Feldman y Slemrod (2007), nosotros estimamos por mínimos cuadrados no lineales, y con los datos proporcionados por el Panel de Declarantes del IRPF publicado por el IEF, los donativos que declaran los individuos en el IRPF en 2008, en función de la renta que obtienen, procedente de diversas fuentes, y de otras variables demográficas y fiscales, suponiendo que las rentas del trabajo (o, en algunos escenarios, solo las pensiones) son las únicas no susceptibles de ocultación. Para comprobar la robustez de los resultados alcanzados, repetimos la estimación con otras dos variables que dependen de la renta verdadera de los individuos, pero no de la fuente de procedencia: las pensiones compensatorias entre cónyuges y las cantidades destinadas a la adquisición de la vivienda habitual. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que, de media, el porcentaje de cumplimiento de las rentas no procedentes del trabajo dependiente oscila entre el 40 y el 55 por 100.

Suggested Citation

  • Félix Domínguez Barrero & Julio López Laborda & Fernando Rodrigo Sauco, 2014. ""El hueco que deja el Diablo": Una estimación del fraude en el IRPF con microdatos tributarios," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2014-01, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2014-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naomi E. Feldman & Joel Slemrod, 2007. "Estimating tax noncompliance with evidence from unaudited tax returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 327-352, March.
    2. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    3. Diego Martinez-Lopez, 2013. "The underreporting of income by self-employed workers in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 353-371, November.
    4. Almunia, Miguel & Lopez-Rodriguez, David, 2012. "The efficiency cost of tax enforcement: evidence from a panel of spanish firms," MPRA Paper 44153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Hortas Rico & Jorge Onrubia Fernández, 2014. "Renta personal de los municipios espanoles y su distribución: Metodología de estimación a partir de microdatos tributarios," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2014-12, FEDEA.
    2. César Pérez López & María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Sonia de Lucas Santos, 2019. "Tax Fraud Detection through Neural Networks: An Application Using a Sample of Personal Income Taxpayers," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, March.

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