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Regimen Changes and Duration in the European Monetary System

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  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero
  • Reyes Maroto Illera

Abstract

This paper examines the regime changes in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS), applying the duration model approach to weekly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete EMS history. When using the non-parametric (univariate) analysis, we found that for those regimens with long durations, the ERM would have been relatively stable, while for the (more common) regimes associated with short durations would have been more unstable. The probability of maintaining a certain regime is estimated to be 0.685. When applying a parametric (multivariate) analysis to investigate the role of other variables in the probability of a regime change, we conclude that the interest rate differential with Germany and the magnitude of the realignment would have negatively affected the duration of a given regime, while credibility would have positively influenced such duration. Finally, when distinguishing between groups of currencies, we observe that those in the core are more stable than those in the periphery, obtaining evidence against equality of survival functions among these groups of currencies.
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  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto Illera, "undated". "Regimen Changes and Duration in the European Monetary System," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-05, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdadef:02-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Echevarria Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers 17-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    2. Reyes Maroto Illera & Francisco Pérez Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2002-22, FEDEA.
    3. Robert Brooks & Tim Fry & William Dimovski & Sandra Mihajilo, 2009. "A duration analysis of the time from prospectus to listing for Australian initial public offerings," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 183-190.
    4. S. DeVicerte & P. Alvarez & J. Perez & C. Caso, 2008. "Does currency crisis identification matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 387-395.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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