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Natural Catastrophes and Financial Development: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Roman Horvath

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We estimate the causal effect of natural catastrophes on financial development. We focus on largest catastrophes in developing economies in 1960-2016, employ synthetic control method to compute the counterfactual and use the credit to GDP ratio as the measure of financial development. Our estimates show that the effects of natural catastrophes are sizable, statistically significant and long-lasting. We find that a decade after the catastrophe, credit/GDP ratio remains approximately 30% below its counterfactual. This result suggests that large-scale natural catastrophes severely undermine financial intermediation in developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horvath, 2020. "Natural Catastrophes and Financial Development: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers IES 2020/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2020_14
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    File URL: https://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/en/veda-vyzkum/working-papers/6245
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural catastrophes; financial development; synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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