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Quantifying the Effects of the CNB's Exchange Rate Commitment: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

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  • Matej Opatrny

    (Institute of Economics Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague)

Abstract

In this paper I evaluate the quantitative effects of the Czech National Bank’s commitment to keep the Koruna from appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I focus on the policy’s impact on output, unemployment, and inflation. I use the synthetic control method, which allows me to compute the counter-factual development of the Czech economy in the absence of the commitment. I find that the commitment helped decrease unemployment substantially. The effect on overall output is also strongly positive, almost 2 percentage points for growth in 2015, but only marginally statistically significant, which might be connected to disturbances created by changes in excise taxes. The effect of the commitment on inflation is positive but not statistically significant at standard levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Matej Opatrny, 2017. "Quantifying the Effects of the CNB's Exchange Rate Commitment: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(6), pages 539-577, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:67:y:2017:i:6:p:539-577
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Noémi Kreif & Richard Grieve & Dominik Hangartner & Alex James Turner & Silviya Nikolova & Matt Sutton, 2016. "Examination of the Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Health Policies with Multiple Treated Units," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1514-1528, December.
    8. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil – Stemming a tide with a signal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2938-2952.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 550-577, December.
    2. Matej Opatrny, 2021. "The impact of the Brexit vote on UK financial markets: a synthetic control method approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 559-587, May.
    3. Margarit Monica-Ionelia, 2019. "Considerations On The Unconventional Monetary Policy In Central And East European Countries," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 263-268, December.
    4. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech Approach," Working Papers IES 2017/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2017.
    5. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as16 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tomas Havranek & Mojmir Hampl, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech National Bank's Approach," Research and Policy Notes 2017/01, Czech National Bank.
    8. David Svacina, 2018. "Devaluation with Exchange rate Floor in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers IES 2018/06, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; unemployment; output; monetary policy; synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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