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Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification

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Abstract

This paper focuses on how to calibrate models used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. Based on the results of a verification of the Czech National Bank’s stress testing methodology, the paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated conservatively and slightly overestimate the risks. However, to ensure that the stress test framework is conservative enough over time, a verification, i.e. comparison of the actual values of key banking sector variables – in particular the capital adequacy ratio – with predictions generated by the stress-testing models should become a standard part of the stress-testing framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification," Working Papers IES 2010/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2010_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr0910/3 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    3. Petr Jakubík & Jaroslav Heřmánek, 2008. "Stress testing of the czech banking sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(3), pages 195-212.
    4. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr0809/4 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress testing; credit risk; bank capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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