IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2010_12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification

Author

Abstract

This paper focuses on how to calibrate models used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. Based on the results of a verification of the Czech National Bank’s stress testing methodology, the paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated conservatively and slightly overestimate the risks. However, to ensure that the stress test framework is conservative enough over time, a verification, i.e. comparison of the actual values of key banking sector variables – in particular the capital adequacy ratio – with predictions generated by the stress-testing models should become a standard part of the stress-testing framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification," Working Papers IES 2010/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2010_12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/13755
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119, Czech National Bank.
    2. Petr Jakubík & Jaroslav Heřmánek, 2008. "Stress testing of the czech banking sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(3), pages 195-212.
    3. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    4. Petr Jakubik & Jakub Seidler, 2009. "Estimating Expected Loss Given Default," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 102-109, Czech National Bank.
    5. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank.
    2. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "How to Improve the Quality of Stress Tests through Backtesting," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 325-346, August.
    3. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2013. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Assessing the Resilience of the Banking Sector Used by the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 505-536, December.
    4. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    5. Cağatay Başarır, 2016. "A Macro Stress Test Model of Credit Risk for the Turkish Banking Sector," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 762-774, December.
    6. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Stress Test Verification as Part of an Advanced Stress-Testing Framework," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 92-101, Czech National Bank.
    7. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    8. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Abdelaziz Rouabah & John Theal, 2010. "Stress testing: The impact of shocks on the capital needs of the Luxembourg banking sector," BCL working papers 47, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Azamat Abdymomunov & Sharon Blei & Bakhodir Ergashev, 2015. "Integrating Stress Scenarios into Risk Quantification Models," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 57-79, February.
    12. Michele Costola & Bertrand Maillet & Zhining Yuan & Xiang Zhang, 2024. "Mean–variance efficient large portfolios: a simple machine learning heuristic technique based on the two-fund separation theorem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 133-155, March.
    13. Pritsker, Matt, 2019. "An overview of regulatory stress-testing and steps to improve it," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 39-43.
    14. Bookstaber, Rick & Cetina, Jill & Feldberg, Greg & Flood, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 2013. "Stress tests to promote financial stability: Assessing progress and looking to the future," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 16-25, December.
    15. Scholz, Roland W. & Czichos, Reiner & Parycek, Peter & Lampoltshammer, Thomas J., 2020. "Organizational vulnerability of digital threats: A first validation of an assessment method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 627-643.
    16. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2012. "Macroprudential Policy and Its Instruments in a Small EU Economy," Research and Policy Notes 2012/03, Czech National Bank.
    18. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
    19. Zi-Yi Guo, 2017. "A Model of Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios for VIX Shocks," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 155-163, May.
    20. N. Packham & F. Woebbeking, 2021. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Papers 2107.06839, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    21. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," Working Papers 202106, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress testing; credit risk; bank capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2010_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.