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Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting in the CEE Accession Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Iacone

    (University of Bologna (Italy) and London School of Economics (GB))

  • Renzo Orsi

    (University of Bologna (Italy))

Abstract

We consider a small structural model to describe the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the dynamics of inflation. We first verify the validity of the general structure estimating it for Germany which represents a sort of benchmark model. At least one of the links required for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, when we analyse the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs), reveals to be not significant when considered on the whole sample. On the contrary the results are closer to a textbook description when the attention is shifted to the second part of the sample only. We interpret this as a piece of evidence indicating that the transition is indeed operating, but it is still ongoing and in some cases it is not complete yet. We also verify that the effects of the exchange rate on both the aggregate demand and on the inflation are in agreement with the economic theory. We conclude that the exchange rate should be actively used to control the inflation in the CEECs.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Iacone & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting in the CEE Accession Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp08, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
    • Handle: RePEc:ezo:ezppap:wp08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Accession to the EMU," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 4-22, March.
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    8. Piazolo, Daniel, 2000. "Eastern Europe between Transition and Accession: An Analysis of Reform Requirements," Kiel Working Papers 991, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Roberto Golinelli & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp09, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    2. Christian Fahrholz, 2003. "Strategic Exchange-Rate Policy of Accession Countries in ERM II," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp14, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Apr 2003.

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