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The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Germans cannot agree to unlimited bailouts of euro members. On the other hand, if they had insisted on the founding principles (fiscal constraints, "no bailout clause," and low inflation as the sole goal of the ECB), the euro would not have survived the post-2009 crisis. The impact of fiscal austerity has been to raise debt/GDP ratios among periphery countries, not lower them. The eurozone will endure, but through a lost decade of growth. It would help if the ECB further eased monetary policy, which it could do by buying US treasury bonds rather than eurozone bonds. Still needed is a long-run fiscal regime to address the moral hazard problem. Two worthwhile proposals are blue bonds and the delegation of forecasting to independent fiscal agencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey, 2015. "The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?," Working Paper Series rwp15-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp15-015
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    Cited by:

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    3. D'Aguanno, Lucio, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Currency Union," Economic Research Papers 270012, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    4. Ritzen, Jo & Haas, Jasmina, 2016. "A Sustainable Euro Area with Exit Options," IZA Policy Papers 120, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. De Socio, Antonio & Michelangeli, Valentina, 2017. "A model to assess the financial vulnerability of Italian firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 147-168.
    6. Harris Dellas & George S. Tavlas, 2017. "Milton Friedman and the case for flexible exchange rates and monetary rules," Working Papers 236, Bank of Greece.
    7. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
    8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2016. "Co-movements of non-Euro EU currencies with the Euro," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 376-383.
    9. Radu SIMANDAN, 2020. "A gentle sceptic: Martin Feldstein and the euro," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 378-395, December.
    10. Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2018. "Australia saved from the financial crisis by policy or by exports?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 118-135.
    11. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2020. "A market‐financed and growth‐enhancing investment plan for the euro area," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 604-632, July.
    12. Camarero, Mariam & D’Adamo, Gaetano & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 183-199.
    13. Péter Benczúr & István Kónya, 2022. "Convergence to the Centre," Contributions to Economics, in: László Mátyás (ed.), Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic, chapter 0, pages 1-51, Springer.

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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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