IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/15140.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Declining Trends in the Real Interest Rate and Inflation: Role of aging

Author

Listed:
  • FUJITA Shigeru
  • FUJIWARA Ippei

Abstract

This paper explores a causal link between the aging of the labor force and declining trends in the real interest rate and inflation in Japan. We develop a new Keynesian search/matching model that features heterogeneities in age and firm-specific skill levels. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure driven by the drop induce significant low-frequency movements in per-capita consumption growth and the real interest rate. They also lead to similar movements in the inflation rate when the monetary policy rule follows the standard Taylor rule, failing to recognize the time-varying nature of the natural rate of interest. The model suggests that the aging of the labor force accounts for roughly 40% of the decline in the real interest rate observed between the 1980s and 2000s in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • FUJITA Shigeru & FUJIWARA Ippei, 2015. "Declining Trends in the Real Interest Rate and Inflation: Role of aging," Discussion papers 15140, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:15140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/15e140.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    2. Arnaud Chéron & Jean-Olivier Hairault & François Langot, 2013. "Life-Cycle Equilibrium Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 843-882.
    3. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    5. James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April.
    6. Ikeda, Daisuke & Saito, Masashi, 2014. "The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 37-48.
    7. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2008. "A dynamic new Keynesian life-cycle model: Societal aging, demographics, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2398-2427, August.
    8. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Masaaki Shirakawa, 2012. "Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 30, pages 19-38, November.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    11. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    12. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
    13. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Global demographic change : some implications for central banks : overview panel," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 447-454.
    14. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    15. Mikael Juselius & Elod Takats, 2015. "Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 485, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Ríos-Rull José-Víctor, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-48, May.
    17. Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Fujimoto, Junichi, 2012. "Life-cycle search, match quality and Japan’s labor market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 326-350.
    18. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    19. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2012. "Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects through Changes in Demand Structure," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Declining Trends in the Real Interest Rate and Inflation: Role of aging
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2016-01-13 21:54:25

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    3. Sudo, Nao & Takizuka, Yasutaka, 2020. "Population Aging And The Real Interest Rate In The Last And Next 50 Years: A Tale Told By An Overlapping Generations Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 2060-2103, December.
    4. Sasaki, Yuri & Yoshida, Yushi, 2018. "Decomposition of Japan's trade balance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 507-537.
    5. Gaofeng Han, 2020. "Structural transformation and its implications for the Chinese economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 339-383, August.
    6. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.
    7. Weifeng Liu & Warwick McKibbin, 2022. "Global macroeconomic impacts of demographic change," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 914-942, March.
    8. Kim, Myunghyun, 2024. "Declining real interest rates: The role of energy prices in energy importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fujita, Shigeru & Fujiwara, Ippei, 2023. "Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Dániel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkácsi, 2019. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 67, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Mateo Zokalj, 2016. "The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 383-412.
    4. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    5. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.
    6. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Papetti, Andrea, 2020. "Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector new Keynesian perspective," Working Paper Series 2382, European Central Bank.
    7. Barbiellini Amidei, Federico & Gomellini, Matteo & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "The price of demography," MPRA Paper 94435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    9. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    10. Kenichi Sakura, 2020. "Comments on "Can an ageing workforce explain low inflation?"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 81-84, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Giuseppe Ferrero & Marco Gross & Stefano Neri, 2019. "On secular stagnation and low interest rates: Demography matters," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 262-278, December.
    12. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    13. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2018. "Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 392-403.
    14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    18. Yihan Liu & Niklas Westelius, 2017. "The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-16, June.
    19. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.
    20. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Barnett critique after three decades: A New Keynesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 5-21.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:15140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.