IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/05002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forbearance Impedes Confidence Recovery (Revised)

Author

Listed:
  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI

Abstract

This paper is a revised version of DP02-E-005, where the mathematical structure of the model in this paper is substantially different from the previous one. The finding that countries that take a slow approach to reform during a financial crisis run into problems of persistent stagnation is usually explained as follows: Forbearance policy (i.e., an implicit subsidy to inefficient sectors) distorts resource allocation, causing a supply shortage of resources to the productive sectors. I propose another explanation: Forbearance impedes the recovery of confidence that is lost during a financial crisis. If confidence is restored through Bayesian learning by economic agents based on observations of government actions, then the inaction of the government (forbearance) impedes Bayesian learning. The model shows that forbearance policy delays economic recovery. (forthcoming in Journal of Macroeconomics)

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI, 2005. "Forbearance Impedes Confidence Recovery (Revised)," Discussion papers 05002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:05002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/05e002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J., 1986. "Reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 3-20, January.
    2. Stephen Morris, 1996. "Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1111-1133.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    4. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    5. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce David Smith, 2014. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 800-892, November.
    6. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-1155, December.
    7. Federico Sturzenegger & Mariano Tommasi (ed.), 1998. "The Political Economy of Reform," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262194007, December.
    8. Douglas Gale & Martin Hellwig, 1985. "Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(4), pages 647-663.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kobayashi, Keiichiro, 2007. "Forbearance impedes confidence recovery," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 178-188, March.
    2. Randall S. Kroszner, 1999. "Is the Financial System Politically Independent? Perspectives on the Political Economy of Banking and Financial Regulation," CRSP working papers 492, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    3. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2018. "Rational ignorance, populism, and reform," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 119-135.
    4. Micael Castanheira & Gaëtan Nicodème & Paola Profeta, 2012. "On the political economics of tax reforms: survey and empirical assessment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 598-624, August.
    5. Kroszner, Randall S., 1999. "Is the Financial System Politically Independent? Perspectives on the Political Economy of Banking and Financial Regulation," Working Papers 151, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    6. Vincenzo Galasso, 2014. "The role of political partisanship during economic crises," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 143-165, January.
    7. Randall S. Kroszner, 1999. "Is the Financial System Politically Independent? Perspectives on the Political Economy of Banking and Financial Regulation," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 151, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
    8. Drudi, Francesco & Prati, Alessandro, 2000. "Signaling fiscal regime sustainability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1897-1930, December.
    9. Enrico Spolaore, 2004. "Adjustments in Different Government Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 117-146, July.
    10. Cason, Timothy N. & Mui, Vai-Lam, 2005. "Uncertainty and resistance to reform in laboratory participation games," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 708-737, September.
    11. Hans Pitlik, 2004. "Institutionelle Voraussetzungen marktorientierter Reformen der Wirtschaftspolitik," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 240/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    12. Kontodaimon, Martha & Neumärker, Bernhard, 2015. "Two level reform game problems of Greece," The Constitutional Economics Network Working Papers 03-2015, University of Freiburg, Department of Economic Policy and Constitutional Economic Theory.
    13. Francesco Caselli & Nicola Gennaioli, 2008. "Economics and Politics of Alternative Institutional Reforms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1197-1250.
    14. Urs Fischbacher & Simeon Schudy, 2014. "Reciprocity and resistance to comprehensive reform," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 411-428, September.
    15. Deroose, Servaas & Turrini, Alessandro, 2005. "The Short-Term Budgetary Implications of Structural Reforms. Evidence from a Panel of EU Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Elsa Fornero, 2015. "Economic-financial Literacy and (Sustainable) Pension Reforms: Why the Former is a Key Ingredient for the Latter," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 134, pages 6-16, January-F.
    17. Stephen Morris & Stephen Coate, 1999. "Policy Persistence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1327-1336, December.
    18. Markus Leibrecht & Hans Pitlik, 2014. "Generalised Trust, Institutional and Political Constraints on the Executive and Deregulation of Markets," WIFO Working Papers 481, WIFO.
    19. Sujoy Mukerji & Han N. Ozsoylev & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2023. "Trading Ambiguity: A Tale Of Two Heterogeneities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1127-1164, August.
    20. Lastauskas, Povilas & Stakėnas, Julius, 2020. "Labor market reforms and the monetary policy environment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:05002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.