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Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation

Author

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  • Christos Karydas

    (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland (USI), Switzerland)

  • Anastasios Xepapadeas

    (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece & Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy)

Abstract

There are concerns that climate-related physical and political risks are not yet properly reflected in asset prices. To address these concerns, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework with two sources of rare disasters: macroeconomic events and climate change. We link carbon emissions and portfolio composition with the stochastically-varying probability of climate-related events. Using theory and simulations we study the implications of the imminent threat of climate change on different market measures and on the participation of carbon-intensive assets in the market portfolio. We also obtain closed-form solutions for market prices and the Social Cost of Carbon. Our results suggest that climate change implies a positive and increasing risk premium. We also show that, with the observed trends in climate change, macroeconomic risk works as a hedge against catastrophic climate change, such that the aggregate equity premium may remain unaltered. The transition risk of climate policy substantially lowers the participation of carbon-intensive assets in the market portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:19-327
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    2. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    4. Rick Van der Ploeg & Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft, 2020. "Asset Pricing and Decarbonization: Diversification versus Climate Action," Economics Series Working Papers 901, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Francesca Diluiso & Barbara Annicchiarico & Matthias Kalkuhl & Jan C. Minx, 2020. "Climate Actions and Stranded Assets: The Role of Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," CEIS Research Paper 501, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 22 Jul 2020.
    6. Julia Anna Bingler & Chiara Colesanti Senni & Pierre Monnin, 2021. "Climate Transition Risk Metrics: Understanding Convergence and Divergence across Firms and Providers," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/363, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    7. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Martin Motl & Jaromir Tonner, 2021. "Modelling the impacts of climate change on the global economy: Stagflationary shock looming," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2021, pages 13-22, Czech National Bank.
    9. Bingler, Julia Anna & Colesanti Senni, Chiara & Monnin, Pierre, 2022. "Understand what you measure: Where climate transition risk metrics converge and why they diverge," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Risk premia; Rare events; Policy Risk; Stranded assets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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