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Understanding Fundamentalist Belief Through Bayesian Updating

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  • Srijit Mishra

Abstract

Using Bayesian updating to deterministic priors persistence of fundamentalist belief like those in the mind of a terrorist is explained. Under such belief system if conditional evidence is diametrically opposite and also deterministic then a process of change will set in and in the present war against terrorism this can be effectively done through Islamic religious authorities. In situations where interaction is the basis, self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others’. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative about the concerns of Middle East, this will also make things easier for intervention through Islam.[Working Paper No. 2003-002]

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  • Srijit Mishra, 2010. "Understanding Fundamentalist Belief Through Bayesian Updating," Working Papers id:2563, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2563
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    1. John B. Davis & D. W. Hands & Uskali Mäki (ed.), 1998. "The Handbook of Economic Methodology," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 741.
    2. Srijit Mishra, 2002. "Understanding fundamentalist belief through Bayesian updating," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2003-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Isard Walter & An Jiyoun, 2004. "A Hierarchical Decision-Making Model for Progress in Reducing Three Evils: Terrorism, Poverty and Environmental Degradation," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Kuhn, H.W. & Harsanyi, J.C. & Selten, R. & Weibull, J.W. & van Damme, E.E.C. & Nash Jr, J.F. & Hammerstein, P., 1995. "The work of John F. Nash Jr. in game theory," Other publications TiSEM fe698573-e6d1-4080-866e-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Borgers, Tilman, 1996. "On the Relevance of Learning and Evolution to Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1374-1385, September.
    6. Tavares, José & Llussá, Fernanda, 2007. "Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We Need," CEPR Discussion Papers 6509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kandori, Michihiro & Mailath, George J & Rob, Rafael, 1993. "Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 29-56, January.
    8. Alberto Baccini, 2001. "Frequentist Probability and Choice under Uncertainty," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 743-772, Winter.
    9. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.
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    1. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.
    2. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian updating; fundamentalist belief; interaction; variation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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