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Regime Shifts in India’s Monetary Policy Response Function

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  • Lokendra Kumawat
  • N R Bhanumurthy

Abstract

The objectives of monetary policy have always been a topic of intensive debate. This debate has resurfaced during the past few years. In India too monetary policy-making appears to have undergone significant change during the last two decades and has also been responding to changing macroeconomic environment. Against this backdrop an attempt has been made in this paper to model the monetary policy response function for India, for the period April 1996 to July 2015. Using 91-day Treasury bill rate as the policy rate, we find that the monetary policy has been responsive to inflation rate, output gap and exchange rate changes during this period. We find substantial time-varying behavior in the reaction function. The regime shift tests show that the transition is driven by inflation gap as well as exchange rate changes. Highly complex nature of dynamics of interest rate does not allow us to estimate many models, but the models estimated show that the monetary policy responds to inflation gap as well as exchange rate changes. Another important finding is that there is a high degree of inertia in the policy rates. [Working paper No. 177].

Suggested Citation

  • Lokendra Kumawat & N R Bhanumurthy, 2016. "Regime Shifts in India’s Monetary Policy Response Function," Working Papers id:11400, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:11400
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    2. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 2012/118, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hutchison, Michael M. & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2013. "Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-202.
    4. Singh, Kanhaiya & Kalirajan, Kaliappa P., 2006. "Monetary Policy in India: Objectives, Reaction Function and Policy Effectiveness," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 2(2), pages 1-19.
    5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2016. "Legislative strategy for setting up an independent debt management agency," Working Papers 16/178, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Sengupta, Bodhisatva, 2016. "Endogenous Leadership in a Federal Transfer Game," Working Papers 16/180, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Utso Pal Mustafi & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2020. "Regime changes in Indias monetary policy and Tenures of RBI governors," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam & Choudhary, Rishabh, 2021. "Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 77-141.

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