Stuck in the jam? CO2 emissions and energy intensity in Mexico

Global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) have been accelerating in recent decades. Moreover, since the year 2000 global emissions have been growing far more rapidly than the worst scenarios projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Rogner et al., 2007, Raupach, et al., 2007). This growth has been driven by the expansion of activity in the world economy and the reversal of earlier declining trends in both the energy intensity of gross domestic product and the carbon intensity of energy (measured respectively, as energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product and the CO2 emissions per unit of total primary energy supply). According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), during the period 1970 to 2004 global emissions have risen as the combined effect of global income growth (77%) and global population growth (69%), which have surpassed the general decrease in energy intensity of GDP (-33%) and the almost null reduction in carbon intensity of energy (-2%). In other words, “declining carbon and energy intensities have been unable to offset income effects and population growth” at a global scale, rising consequently carbon emissions (Rogner et al., 2007, p. 107).