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Diffusion of counterfeit medical products in a developing country: Empirical evidence for Suriname

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  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • Lede, M.M.

Abstract

Based on detailed shipping figures of Suriname’s main harbour in Paramaribo, we estimate the total shipments (in kilograms) of original and counterfeit medical products for 1996-2008 across five product categories. Using various time series techniques, we document that total cumulative shipments of counterfeit products eventually will make about 40% of total shipments. Correlation between the shipment series is on average 0.9, and there are no relevant leads or lags, implying that there are two distinct sets of consumers for original and for counterfeit products.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Lede, M.M., 2010. "Diffusion of counterfeit medical products in a developing country: Empirical evidence for Suriname," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:20136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Lede, M.M., 2010. "Diffusion of Original and Counterfeit Products in a Developing Country," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1833-1840, December.
    3. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    4. Desiraju, Ramarao & Nair, Harikesh S. & Chintagunta, Pradeep, 2004. "Diffusion of New Pharmaceutical Drugs in Developing and Developed Nations," Research Papers 1950, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    5. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
    6. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1825-1832, December.
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