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Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Chaovanapoonphol, Y.
  • Lim, C.
  • McAleer, M.J.
  • Wiboonpongse, A.

Abstract

Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971 to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaovanapoonphol, Y. & Lim, C. & McAleer, M.J. & Wiboonpongse, A., 2010. "Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:18601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2009. "Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Voatility for Korea and Taiwan," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 25, pages 241-267.
    3. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Dan Slottje, 2009. "Modelling International Tourist Arrivals and Volatility: An Application to Taiwan," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0097, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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